El Nino portends a warmer, drier winter overall, NWS says

The National Weather Service in Missoula last week said the region will be under strong El Nino influence this winter, which generally means a warmer and drier season. But, it cautions, that’s not always the case. The winter of 2015-16 was the last strong El Nino and it actually saw a snowpack that was at or above normal when all was said and done.

Still, most strong El Ninos result in fewer snowstorms and fewer days with below normal temperatures and arctic air intrusions.

They can also mean more valley inversions, where cold air is trapped in the valleys and there’s fog and dreary days on end.

El Nino is a shift in the Pacific Ocean current which typically sends the jet stream further south into California and the Southwest U.S., the Weather Service noted.

February, during El Ninos, is the month that sees the most dramatic temperature swings, as it can be much warmer and drier on average.

Overall, temperatures should be 2 to 4 degrees above average and the snowpack, is typically about 81% of normal in West Glacier and 76% of normal in Kalispell.

The Weather Service noted that an El Nino has little to do with the summer fire season overall. There are a host of factors that impact that, from timely summer rains to how hot it gets in the summer.

Still, Northwest Montana is already under an extreme to severe drought, depending on location. Area rivers and streams are running low and in Libby, there is already concern that the city’s water supply is low. Libby gets its water from reservoirs filled by Flower Creek.

This week wasn’t starting out on an El Nino foot, however.

It's been snowy and cold the past few days, with lows in the teens, though temperatures should moderate back into the 40s by next week.