Ocean currents could mean a winter toss-up
Elk are all ears on the flats at St. Mary.
The National Weather Service has issued its winter outlook from November through March. The Pacific Ocean currents this year are in what’s known as ENSO neutral conditions said meteorologist Bob Nester in a YouTube video.
Unlike El Nino or La Nina years, the neutral conditions aren’t earmarked by a warm and dry event or a cold and snowy winter.
El Nino winters, by contrast, are generally warmer and drier. La Nina conditions usually mean colder and wetter.
This year, it could be a toss up. Past winters with ENSO neutral ocean currents have run the gamut, Nester noted, and we’ve had 22 of them in the past 70 years.
While some of them have been warmer and drier, others have been downright nasty. The winter of 1996-97, which saw record snow and record cold, was an ENSO neutral winter.
“Some of our most extreme (events) have happened in ENSO neutral years,” he said.
In 1996, Missoula saw 40 inches of snow and bitter cold the week of Christmas and the Flathead had a record snowpack that winter as well.
Nester suggested that folks keep an eye on the 10 to 14 day outlooks this season as a better indicator of what’s on tap.
Meanwhile, things are already starting out cold. October saw record cold temperatures and the next week promises to be cold and snowy as well.