Winter shouldn't be as bad as last year, forecasters say

This winter shouldn’t be as snowy as last winter, the National Weather Service is predicting. Last winter saw a snowpack that was about 140 percent of average, noted meteorologist Bob Nester, with numerous snowstorms.

But the Pacific Ocean is heading into a weak El Nino current, which typically means warmer and drier winters, as the jet stream shifts southward across the west and so do the snowstorms.

That doesn’t mean we won’t have storms, or even cold weather, Nester cautioned, but it means that overall, there should be less snow.

“We can have a wet season, just perhaps not as much snow,” Nester said in a webinar on Monday.

While weak El Nino winters typically are warmer and drier, they’re not always drier. For example, in 2104-2015, West Glacier was above normal for precipitation at 9.73 inches for the winter months, but snowfall was below normal.

A typical weak El Nino winter in the Flathead sees a snowpack that’s about 80 percent of average.

It has been a wet week, however. West Glacier has seen 1.33 inches of rain in the past seven days and more is expected throughout the week and weekend.

But it will take a lot more rain and snow to refill area lakes. Right now, Glacier National Park’s lakes are well below normal both east and west of the divide after a very dry summer that saw little rain in July and August.