Streamflow forecast good despite low snowpack

The federal Natural Resources Conservation Service in Bozeman reports that snowpack in the Flathead River Basin is at 72 percent of normal and the Kootenai River Basin is at 49 percent.

But the agency also forecasts streamflows in both drainages to be above 90 percent of average from April through July, a positive note in an otherwise dry year across the West.

“The Flathead is one of the few basins that’s been hanging on, mostly because we did see abundant snowfall this year,” NRCS hydrologist Luke Zukiewicz said. “The high elevations are holding onto it, and we’ve seen above-average rain precipitation pretty much throughout the year. This past month has helped to keep the forecasts near normal to above-normal.”

Mountain snowpack levels fell 16 percent in the Flathead Basin and 11 percent in the Kootenai Basin during March, but precipitation was above average during the month.

According to Ray Nickless, a National Weather Service hydrologist in Missoula, total precipitation in Kalispell for March was about 34 percent above average. That additional precipitation helped balance low-elevation melting resulting from a significantly warmer March that averaged 39.1 degrees, compared with a historical average of 35.4 degrees.

Freezing temperatures generally continue to prevail in the mountains, leaving high-elevation snowpack in good shape for the warmer months ahead.

Statewide, the snowpack in Montana is 68 percent of average — 67 percent west of the Continental Divide and 72 percent east of the Divide.

Statewide, anticipated streamflows are 79 percent of average, weighed down in large part by the Missouri River Basin, which is forecasted to be 57 percent of average.

“Compared to the rest of the West, Montana is in good shape,” Zukiewicz said. “The Northwest states have been getting some precipitation, but in Washington and the West they got very little snow.”

Zukiewicz cautioned that the agency’s predictions are based on historical data and could see significant revisions depending on weather in the next months.

“It’s important to note the weather in Montana can change rapidly, as we all know,” he said. “Recently we’ve seen below-freezing temperatures at a lot of the lower elevations, so that accelerated snowmelt we were seeing has started to curtail a little bit.”