Elk and deer forecasts are a mixed bag

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks has issued its forecast for the general hunting season this fall.

For elk hunters think snow and more snow, FWP says. Montana’s general, five-week long, elk hunting season opens Oct. 26.

Montana’s elk populations are in good shape, even as predation by wolves has contributed to some depressed elk populations in parts of western and southwestern Montana.

Once again this season, Montana hunters will pursue elk under some very favorable regulations but, as ever, the weather will play a big part in hunter success. With some good old-fashioned cold and snow, it could be a banner year for elk.

In Region 1, Northwestern Montana, elk numbers remain stable, and elk hunters should find populations similar to what they have seen for the past few years. Spring surveys across the region showed good numbers, with calf recruitment slightly below average but better than it was in 2008 and 2009.

Elk numbers in the backcountry districts, hunting districts 150 and 151, have been stable since 2008, and calf recruitment among elk that winter in the South Fork of the Flathead River has been gradually increasing for the past five years. Elk numbers in the lower Clark Fork area, the region’s best elk producer, have been stable with good calf and bull numbers seen during spring surveys.

Deer hunters in Montana this season will find another a mix of hunting opportunities across the state when the general season opens Oct. 26.

On the upside, FWP wildlife biologists are reporting better fawn production and survival in many areas. Like other big game hunting, a nice cold front with plenty of snow should lead to some good hunting this season.

On the downside, reports of another spotty outbreak of epizootic hemorrhagic disease — a fatal virus in deer that’s caused by biting insects — are coming in from across Montana.

Deer hunters in Region 1 will benefit from the past two good winters with good fawn recruitment. White-tailed deer numbers in Northwest Montana are generally recovering nicely from a recent population low in 2009.

In parts of the region, particularly the far northwest and in the North Fork of the Flathead River, deer numbers will likely still be below normal.

Hunters should find a lot of yearling and two-year old bucks this fall. Older bucks five years old and older, while not as plentiful as during 2008-2010, should still make up about 10-15 percent of the buck harvest.

Mule deer populations remain low, and hunters should not expect to find the type of mule deer hunting they enjoyed a generation ago. But the 2013 spring survey in the Fisher River, one of Montana’s better mule deer areas, showed good numbers and strong fawn recruitment, hopefully indicating some recovery in mule deer populations.