Don't trust government for advice

The last few weeks, I have been amused (again) by the “experts” from various state and federal agencies regarding the possibility of flooding and/or a major fire season.

Common sense (why do we call it that when it is so uncommon?) will tell you that no one — even government experts — can tell what will happen in a month from now. If you don’t believe me, just listen to the five-day weather forecast and see how often the weatherman gets it right. Full-time paid government employees can study past trends, put information into a computer and create a model. In the end, that is the best they can do.

We can predict with certainty that the rivers will rise when the snow melts, but whether or not we will have a major flood or a major fire season is only marginally affected by the winter snowpack. Remember last winter when snowpack reached nearly 200 percent in some drainages and averaged well over 100 percent in the entire Flathead drainage? No major flooding. In fact, the North Fork rose to near flood levels at least twice and then went down again.

The reason? A long, cool spring. Even though it was wet in May and June, the snowpack melted over a relatively long runoff period. The recipe for a flood is always the same with minor differences. A cold spring with a very slow melting period can load the snowpack. If this happens and the weather turns really warm, the snow will melt in a shorter period and flooding becomes possible. If a major rain comes with sudden warming — like in 1964 — then flooding becomes likely, and it can be a doozy.

In my view, the winter snowfall has a somewhat bigger impact on the fire season, but this too is limited. The snow plus good spring rains can create lush growth of grasses and shrubs. If a wet spring creates lush undergrowth and it is hot and dry in late June and all of July, that lush undergrowth can become a tinderbox, especially if we get an early freeze that further dries out the understory. If those things happen, then late summer thunderstorms or careless humans can put us all at risk.

We can’t do much to prepare for a maybe flood except move our belongings to high ground or maybe buy flood insurance. We can prepare for fire.

All of the information tells us that clearing 30 feet around buildings will make a big difference. Same thing with having a metal roof and preventing wind-blown embers from igniting a building. Available water, spray-on foam and wrapping a building can help.

However, if you want firefighters to protect you, they need much more than 30 feet. They also need a safe road to get in or out of your property.

If you don’t know what to do, contact Molly Shepherd or fire chief Lynn Ogle and get a free assessment of your property. Then you can make your own decisions on what or what not to do. If you decide to reduce fuels, the time to do that is in May and June, so debris can be burnt, shipped or hauled away.

Whatever you do, don’t rely on government to accurately predict for you or your property. Get the facts, assess the risk and protect yourself — or not.