Outlook on optimism

Iris and I probably have paid enough on Reader’s Digest subscription to get it until I am over 100 years old. Last few years, it featured more and more unending drug advertisements for every know affliction, principally aimed at older citizens. The former wonderful humor sections were becoming junk to my generation. Jokes were mostly inane. I talked to Iris about cancelling and getting our money back.

Surprise! This month had better format. Humor was more intelligent, but the best part was a welcome selection from a new book on “optimism” by a man who has career experience in economics, zoology, foreign correspondence and as a financier.

Matt Ridley’s opinion is, “It is not insane to believe in a happy future for people and the planet.” His new book takes a look at most major matters important to the life and survival of mankind. Its title is “The Rational Optimist.”

I am going to shamelessly lift a couple of items from the Digest to give you a taste of Ridley’s approach in this “17 Reasons It’s a Great Time to be Alive.” On the subject of oil running out he says: “In 1970, there were 550 billion gallons of oil in reserves in the world, and in the 20 years that followed, the world used 600 billion. So, by 1990, reserves should have been overdrawn 50 billion barrels. Instead, they amounted to 900 billion — not counting tar sands and oil shale that between them contain about 20 times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. Oil, coal and gas are finite, but they will last for decades, perhaps centuries, and people will find alternatives long before they run out.”

What I find in Ridley’s take on the world fits well into the attitude I’ve had for years, and often espoused in this column. Last one was on positive thinking, June 14th last year. I think he’s right on.

Another of the 17 “myths” he deals with is world population: “Population is not a threat. Although world population is growing, the rate of increase has been falling for 50 years. Across the globe, national birth rates are lower now than in 1960, and in the less developed world, the birth rate is approximately halved. This is happening despite people living longer and infant-mortality rates dropping. According to an estimate from the United Nations, population will start falling once it peaks at 9.2 billion in 2075 — so there is every prospect of feeding the world forever. After all, there are already 7 billion people on earth, and they are eating better and better every decade.”

The Digest article ends with this quote from Ridley: “For 200 years, pessimists have had all the headlines — even though optimists have far more often been right. There is immense vested interest in pessimism. No journalist ever got the front page writing a story about how disaster was now less likely. Pressure groups and their customers in the media search for glimmers of doom. Don’t be browbeaten — dare to be an optimist!”

I thought of this last week when NBC News was predicting massive disruptions of communication systems across the world from sun eruptions in the solar atmosphere. Bryan Williams seemed almost disappointed when it didn’t happen, and the major impact turned out to be spectacular increases of the northern lights. Chicken Little was wrong again.

Matt Ridley and people like me fully recognize very real and unfortunate problems are part of life, and the torturous routes we humans take in solving those problems. All of us are also aware modern telecommunications networks feed us instant reports on every bad thing happening anywhere in the universe, often more facts than we really need.

In summation of this optimistic line of thinking, let me remind you, “The world survived for thousands of years … without duct tape.”

G. George Ostrom is a national award-winning Hungry Horse News columnist. He lives in Kalispell.